In addition to rent control, Mayoral candidate Senator Omar Fateh wants Minneapolis to adopt a $20 minimum wage by 2028. This would be disastrous for the city, as results from California, but even from the Twin Cities, have shown.
California adopted a $20 minimum wage for fast food jobs in April 2024. In a recently released National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper, researchers estimate that the law likely cost California 18,000 jobs.
For employment, the researchers
found a decline of 2.64 percent between September 2023 and September 2024—six months before and after the law went into effect. During that same time period, fast-food employment in the rest of the United States slightly increased.
Those different outcomes make it likely that the law caused fast-food businesses to hire fewer people, with a probable effect of lowering such employment 2.3 percent to 3.9 percent. At the middle of the range, that means about 18,000 fewer jobs in California.
Similar results have been found in St. Paul and Minneapolis after the two cities adopted a $15 minimum wage.
Results from the Twin Cities
Minneapolis gradually phased in its minimum wage hike starting in 2018. The minimum wage reached $15 (up from $10) in 2022 for large businesses and in 2024 for small businesses. According to a study published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in May 2023, this resulted in job losses, particularly for low-paid workers in restaurants and other retail jobs.
by 2021Q4, the increease in the minimum wage was associated with …… an average decline in jobs of 1.7 percent, an average decline in hours worked of 1.3 percent, and an average decline in wage earnings of 1 percent. The largest effects are found in the restaurant and the retail industries, in lower-paying establishments, and for lower-paid workers
In St. Paul, the first minimum wage hike went into effect in 2021. St. Paul’s minimum wage reached $15 in 2023 for large businesses and in July 2025 for small businesses. For micro businesses (those with fewer than 5 employees, the minimum wage is slated to reach $15 in 2028.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis found that, much like in Minneapolis, St. Paul’s minimum wage hike cost. These results were observed even before the law went into effect.
As of 2021Q4, the increase in the minimum wage was associated with…… an average decline in jobs of 2.2 percent, an average decline in hours worked of 2.3 percent, and an average decline in wage earnings of 2.1 percent. The largest effects are found in the restaurant and the retail industries, in lower-paying establishments, and for lower-paid workers.
A $20 minimum wage will likely have even more disastrous effects for Minneapolis.
