The Kansas State government may be collecting more money than expected, but that should make lawmakers nervous, not comfortable.
Individual income tax collections are surging, but at the same time retail sales are slowing and corporate income tax revenues are weakening. When workers get paid more while consumers and businesses pull back, the economy is sending a warning.
This tax revenue surge is not the result of strong economic growth. It is largely the product of inflation pushing nominal wages higher and forcing Kansans into higher tax payments even as their real purchasing power falls.
Meanwhile, households are cutting back and businesses are earning less. That combination matters because it shows where the cost of government is landing. It is landing on workers and families, not on expanding production or investment.
Basic economics explains why this is unsustainable. Durable tax revenue growth comes from rising productivity, business investment, and real income gains. Revenue growth driven by inflation and wage pressure is temporary.
When consumption slows and profits shrink, the tax base eventually follows. Kansas is already seeing early signs of that shift.
Despite these signals, state spending continues to grow as if revenue strength will last forever.
The 2025 Kansas Policy Institute Green Book shows Kansas state government spending per resident has climbed to $5,428, ranking 23rd nationally. State and local tax collections per person reached $6,326, ranking 24th. That places Kansas among the higher tax states in the region without the population growth or economic performance to support it.
Strong revenues should prompt restraint. Instead, Kansas relies on tax revenue triggers–whereby if revenues increase to a certain level then tax rates are automatically lowered–to claim discipline. Triggers do not control spending. Even after collecting hundreds of millions of dollars more than expected, Kansans received no meaningful tax relief because an arbitrary threshold was narrowly missed. Meanwhile, government spending kept climbing.
This is why Kansas still faces projected deficits later this decade. The problem is not tax relief. It is spending growth that consistently exceeds population growth plus inflation. When the government expands faster than the private economy, fiscal stress is unavoidable.
The Responsible Kansas Budget was created to stop this pattern. Its principle is simple. Government should not grow faster than what the average taxpayer can afford. Limiting spending growth to less than population growth plus inflation aligns the government with household budgets and economic reality.
But applying a spending cap to an already inflated budget is not enough. Kansas must first confront the size of government it has built. Locking in excess spending guarantees future shortfalls. Fiscal responsibility requires reducing unnecessary spending now, then enforcing a firm growth limit going forward. Some of this was driven by COVID era spending but much of it also because legislators and governors simply cannot help themselves to always spend more.
This approach also restores accountability. When lawmakers operate within a real constraint, priorities matter. Programs cannot grow automatically. Tradeoffs must be justified. Waste becomes harder to defend.
As the 2026 session approaches, pressure will mount to spend what appears to be surplus revenue or delay reform until later. That would repeat the same mistake Kansas has made before.
Revenue growth driven by inflation is fragile. If retail sales remain weak and business investment continues to soften, income tax collections will not hold up.
Without spending restraint, the next downturn will again lead to budget gaps and calls for higher taxes or service cuts.
Kansas does not need new budget gimmicks. It needs to apply basic economics consistently. Prosperity comes from private sector growth, not government expansion. Strong revenues should be used to slow spending growth, not accelerate it.
A Responsible Kansas Budget provides a clear framework to do exactly that. The numbers are already clear. The only question is whether lawmakers act before the cycle repeats.
