MassOpportunity Alliance’s new economic modeling of the proposed ballot question to reduce the personal income tax from 5.0% to 4.0% confirms the findings of Pioneer Institute’s November report, Lessons from the 2000 Massachusetts Income-Tax Rollback, which analyzed what actually happened after Massachusetts cut the income tax from 5.95 percent to 5.00 percent.
Those who screamed from the rooftops that the sky was falling had their heads in the clouds—and no grasp on reality. The revenue loss was far smaller than predicted—and state government did not shrink. Over the past 15 years, state spending has grown two times faster than median household income.
Since the pandemic, Massachusetts has faced a strong outmigration trend: Residents are leaving in every age group and income bracket. And polling from numerous outlets shows that many more residents are actively considering leaving the state, with the strongest pressure coming from younger workers and families.
Inflation already weighs on families; high taxes add another burden. Families are tightening their belts even as state government loosens its own a few more notches. By doing so, Massachusetts has outsourced hard fiscal decisions to households—whether to replace a computer, buy clothing, stock the pantry, pay the heating bill, or repair a car—choices no family should have to make just to get by.
