Domestic out-migration jumped again in 2025, underscoring declining competitiveness and economic risk
BOSTON – Newly released Census Bureau data show that Massachusetts’ population growth is now entirely dependent on immigration, as domestic out-migration rose again in 2025 and underlying demographic and economic weaknesses reasserted themselves.
After a temporary, immigration-driven increase in 2024, population growth slowed sharply last year as international migration returned to more typical levels. In 2025, Massachusetts added just 15,524 residents—the lowest increase since 2021—while losing 33,340 residents to other states, far above the state’s historical average.
“Absent immigration, Massachusetts would already be losing population,” said Aidan Enright, the Institute’s economic research associate and the author of the analysis. “Domestic out-migration rose again in 2025, and that’s a clear signal that the state is becoming less competitive as a place to live, work, and do business.”
From 2022 through 2024, Massachusetts averaged more than 76,000 net international migrants per year, driven largely by an unprecedented surge in humanitarian immigration. In 2025, that figure fell to just over 40,000—roughly in line with pre-pandemic norms. As immigration normalized, it no longer offset persistent domestic out-migration, leaving overall population growth near stall speed.
Domestic out-migration is especially significant because it reflects choice. People leave states when housing is unaffordable, job growth is weak, taxes are high relative to opportunity, or quality of life deteriorates. Despite some moderation from peak pandemic-era outflows, Massachusetts continues to lose residents at a rate well above historical norms.
The Census data also align with broader economic warning signs. Massachusetts remains one of only four states with fewer private-sector jobs today than before the pandemic, has trailed the national average in GDP growth for several consecutive quarters, and in 2022 and 2023 ranked last in the nation in business formation.
“These trends are clear: Weak job growth, high costs, and an uncompetitive business climate are pushing people out,” said Jim Stergios, Pioneer’s executive director. “Immigration temporarily masked those problems and won’t solve them.”
With an aging population and low natural population growth, Massachusetts cannot afford to lose residents to other states. As federal policy aims to reduce immigration further in 2026, the Commonwealth faces growing risk that population stagnation will translate into slower growth, tighter labor markets, and diminished economic opportunity.
Reversing course will require addressing the core factors driving residents away—especially housing affordability, cost-of-living pressures, taxes, and a business climate that has fallen behind competitor states. The 2025 Census data make clear that incremental fixes will not be sufficient.
