Since it launched, as and when the data have become available, I have been tracking the performance of Minnesota’s Paid Family and Medical Leave (PFML) scheme against the forecasts on which it is based. Back in 2023, a daily rate of approvals of 352 (128,338 / 365) was forecast.
The last update came from the Grand Rapids Herald Review, which reported on March 23 that:
As of March 15, nearly 34,000 Minnesotans have been approved for leave since Minnesota’s Paid Leave program began, according to new data release today by the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED).
As I noted, “That works out at a daily approval rate of 459 (34,000 / 74), or 30% above forecast.” This was up from 24% above forecast in the middle of February.
A fresh update shows that this number had continued moving in the wrong direction.
The Star Tribune reports that “The state approved 42,750 requests and denied 19,250 as of March 31.” That works out at a daily approval rate of 475 (42,750 / 90), or 35% above forecast, as Figure 1 shows.
Figure 1: Average daily approval rate for Paid Family and Medical Leave
With actual use of the scheme outstripping forecasts by so much, working Minnesotans might be in line for a tax hike this summer.
