Pensions are one key problem
Staffing shortages often are treated as a recruiting problem. Increasingly, they’re becoming a budget problem. Cities cannot hire officers they cannot afford, regardless of how many qualified applicants exist.
The PORAC study blamed “Negative Views of Law Enforcement…. Higher Attrition Rates & Early Departures…. Lengthy Recruitment Processes.” Perhaps those are factors, and can be addressed. But PORAC ignored the elephant in the room.
A February 2025 Reason Foundation article explained that excessive pensions are exploding budgets. It noted, “Frustratingly, San Diego’s fiscal conundrum was largely addressed by a voter-approved pension reform that was later undone by public worker unions through the courts.” That was Proposition B in 2012, passed by 66% of voters.
Reason’s summary of the situation a year ago, citing the Nov. 2024 Fiscal Year 2026-2030 Five-Year Financial Outlook:
After years of steady financial recovery, the city expects a $170 million deficit in 2025, with deficits for years to come. The city’s Department of Finance estimates from 2026 to 2030 that city budget deficits could total $1.03 billion. This dire situation has compelled San Diego to implement hiring freezes and significant departmental cuts, including to public safety budgets, which are typically protected.
Those hiring freezes are exactly how budget problems become staffing shortages. Vacant positions remain vacant, retirements go unreplaced, academy classes shrink and response times inevitably lengthen.
Since then, a more accurate accounting came from the city’s Annual Comprehensive Financial Report for fiscal year 2024-25, which ended on June 30, 2025. Instead of an estimate, it’s an actual tally. The key number is the Unrestricted Net Position, or financial resources for discretionary use. It was a negative $2.1 billion, or a negative $1,500 per person. That was 10.1% worse than the $1.9 billion UNP reported in 2024.
The ACFR explains, “This deficit largely reflects the combined Pension Liabilities of” $3.2 billion, “combined with” Other Post-Employment Benefits (mainly retiree medical) of $409 million. Total deficit from pension and OPEB liabilities: $3.6 billion.
Here is a chart comparing the UNPs for the five cities I’ve covered, with ACFR links:
