Since it launched, as and when the data have become available, I have been tracking the performance of Minnesota’s Paid Family and Medical Leave (PFML) scheme against the forecasts on which it is based. Back in 2023, a daily rate of approvals of 352 (128,338 / 365) was forecast.
As of January 12, the actual daily rate of approvals was 550, or 56% above forecast. As I noted at the time, “I expected a surge of applications when the scheme launched and a higher daily rate of approvals because people can take time off in 2026 for events, such as having a child, which occurred in 2025.”
By the end of January, the daily approval rate was 442, or 26% above forecast. Noting again that I expected an early surge of applications and approvals, I noted that “the longer the approval rate is above that 352 forecast, the further it will need to fall later to meet it.”
By February 15, the daily approval rate was 435, or 24% above forecast. The scheme was moving in the right direction, albeit not quickly enough.
On Monday, the Grand Rapids Herald Review reported that:
As of March 15, nearly 34,000 Minnesotans have been approved for leave since Minnesota’s Paid Leave program began, according to new data release today by the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED).
That works out at a daily approval rate of 459 (34,000 / 74), or 30% above forecast. The scheme is now moving in the wrong direction, as Figure 1 shows. To meet the forecast, the daily approval rate would need to drop to 324 immediately. Possible, but not likely.
Figure 1: Average daily approval rate for Paid Family and Medical Leave
“Minnesota Paid Leave is working according to plan,” Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) Commissioner Matt Varilek was quoted as saying.
