From the Minneapolis Star Tribune,
‘Panic’ in Minnesota’s Somali community after Trump’s pledge to end deportation protections.
When Pres. Trump first posted his intentions on Friday night, we were told it was a meaningless, merely symbolic gesture, as it would impact, at most around 430 Minnesota residents from Somalia on “temporary protected status” (TPS). These temporary protections have been in place for 34 years and the latest extension was set to expire in March, anyway.
A day later, “panic” has set in.
President Donald Trump’s plan to end Temporary Protected Status for Somalis in Minnesota has sparked alarm and even panic among many in Minnesota’s Somali community, the largest in the U.S.
The move could return hundreds of refugees to Somalia, putting them at risk of injury or death, said Abdiqani Jabane, a local immigration attorney.
“Only a few hundreds” has morphed into “hundreds!” More quotes from that same attorney,
“Sending anyone back to Somalia today is unsafe because al-Shabab remains active, terrorist attacks continue and the [Somali] government today is unable to protect anyone,” he said.
Al-Shabab is defined as a terrorist group by the U.S. State Department and controls parts of the East African country.
“Al-Shabab” was where all of this started, with the City Journal piece from late last week headlined,
How Minnesota’s Welfare Funds Ended Up in the Hands of a Terror Group
City Journal traces funds stolen in the many ongoing welfare frauds (and from more legitimate welfare payments) from Minnesota’s nation-leading-generous social benefit programs to remittances sent by expatriates back to the home country. As money changes hands internationally, through payment systems both formal and informal, local warlords take their cut (call it a commission or a tax).
We can trace the money from A to B to C to D, with Al-Shabab inserting itself somewhere in between “C” and “D” in the process flow. Al-Shabab does not appear to be “D” (the final destination) but more like the proverbial bandit at the pass.
Jabane said he believes Trump is singling out Somalis in Minnesota because of ongoing fraud accusations in which Somali businesses have been accused of stealing millions from the state Department of Human Services.
Let’s unpack that sentence. No “businesses” have been accused. Only individuals have been accused. So far, we’ve seen more than 60 individuals with Somali ancestry convicted of stealing several hundred million dollars ($3oo to $400 million), so far, involving both the state Departments of Human Services and Education and other state and federal agencies. That has already entered into the realm of the proven.
All of these convictions have occurred in just the past three years. Several of those convicted are already serving prison terms. Some of the prison terms handed down extend for decades.
How many persons will eventually be implicated? So far, we are well over 100 defendants formally charged across the various frauds. Will the final number be around 1,000? And what denominator do we apply to that numerator?
It is a 100 percent certainty, based on facts already in the public record, that once we reach the end of the many state and federal investigations and prosecutions of fraud against taxpayers, it will be evident that Minnesota residents of Somali and East African ethnicities were responsible for losses of more than one billion dollars (with a “b”). Those will be facts, demonstrated in courts of law. It is not support for a value judgement or a moral conclusion.
What we’ve seen in reaction to the City Journal piece is a knee-jerk response from many on the left to deny the underlying facts of the frauds, lest it lead people to make a moral judgement.
To make the leap from an empirical observation to a moral judgement is, at a minimum, to commit a logical error (fallacy) of some type (hasty generalization, composition, etc.). On the other hand, beginning with a moral judgement, and then having to deny proven facts that undermine the conclusion, is to commit a different species of logical error.
In any event, we are way, way beyond the stage of mere “accusations.” However, just given the numbers involved, it’s unlikely that many, if any, of the 430 on TPS are guilty of massive fraud.
The Star Tribune notes that, given the late date and the intricacies of the bureaucratic processes involved, TPS is likely to remain in place until it would have expired anyway, nationwide, on March 17 of next year. The Star Tribune quotes,
“Our advice is to stay calm,” Jabane said.
Ok. But I think it’s fair to conclude that there is zero chance Trump will extend TPS for those from Somalia, status which is set to expire on its own in just 114 days, nationwide. An earlier Star Tribune report pegs the number of Somalis on TPS, nationwide, at over 700.
When would be a good time to panic?
[Note: An earlier version of the post appeared at Power Line.]
