There are few topics in 2025 that have drawn as much attention in the U.S. as immigration enforcement. In Minnesota the topic rose to the top of mind for many following an intensive push by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in Operation Metro Surge. The enforcement effort in December alone was credited with the arrests of 670 people in Minnesota who were in the country illegally.
The intense interest has, not surprisingly, led to wide variety of reporting of the data – much of it critical of the Trump administration. As 2025 draws to a close, American Experiment offers this analysis of key immigration data comparing the first year of the Trump administration against historical data from the Biden administration.
The data analyzed comes from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) directly, and from the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) indirectly. TRAC is a data gathering and distribution organization which uses Freedom of Information Act requests to obtain official data. Data from the Biden administration’s four years was combined to show a 4-year average (2021-2024) and the Trump administration data (2025) was estimated using extrapolation to complete a 12-month period given December’s data is not complete, and October 2025 data is missing due to the government shutdown.
Number of illegal aliens
In January 2025, the Center for Immigration Studies estimated the number of illegal aliens in the U.S. to be 15.4 million. This figure represented an all-time high and an increase of 5.4 million during the four years of the Biden administration.
Border encounters
The “open border” policies of the Biden administration led to an unprecedented surge at our borders. During the four years under Biden (FY’s 2021-2024), Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) encountered 10,825,387 people attempting to cross our borders – a four-year average of 2,706,346/year.
The Trump administration’s firm border policies dramatically reduced the number of people attempting to cross our borders in FY 2025 – dropping to just 691,906 encounters. This equates to a 74.4% reduction in border encounters compared against the four-year Biden administration average.
The following chart by CBP, reflects the dramatic surge in encounters at our nation’s borders during the Biden administration:
Immigration Enforcement
Much of the consternation around immigration enforcement has focused on ICE enforcement in communities across the country. Much of the activity has been focused on cities that have adopted overt sanctuary practices designed to thwart ICE effectiveness through separation and non-cooperation policies.
The Border Czar, Tom Homan, has consistently said that ICE is prioritizing illegal aliens with criminal histories here or in their home country and has requested that all local jurisdictions professionally cooperate with and notify ICE when they have custody of a person ICE has indicated it wants for immigration violations. Instead, many jurisdictions have refused to cooperate with ICE and have released people back into the community. This has led ICE to have to go into the community to relocate those people and in doing so has led to “collateral” arrests of people with no independent criminal history other than their illegal immigration status.
Ice Arrests
According to TRAC data, the four-year average for ICE arrests nationwide under the Biden administration was just 192,594. The extrapolated figure for the Trump administration’s first full year is 863,943. This represents a 348% increase under President Trump. The percentage of people arrested that had a criminal history or a pending criminal charge was 93.6% under President Biden and 71.3% under President Trump. The differences stem from the massive increased effort under the Trump administration and the collateral arrests Homan predicted. Regardless, arrests of illegal aliens with no separate criminal history are legitimate and are necessary if we are serious about addressing the 15.4 million illegal aliens residing in the US.
Border Patrol Arrests
Border Patrol arrests at our borders averaged 432,716 under President Biden and are extrapolated out at 446,640 in President Trump’s first full year in office. While these figures are similar, one must remember that there were over 2 million more encounters each year under President Biden. This means the Border Patrol under President Biden arrested just 16% of those it encountered at the border, while the Border Patrol under President Trump has arrested 65% of those encountered at the border. 8.3% of those arrested at the border during the Biden administration had a known criminal history, while 14% of those arrested at the border under the Trump administration have had a known criminal history. It’s important to note these figures do not reflect the unknown number of “got-aways” that have entered out country and who represent a significant national security risk.
Total ICE Detainees
The average annual number of detainees held by ICE (arrests from all sources) during the Biden administration was 625,310, of which 34.6% had a criminal history. The figures for the Trump administration’s first full year are extrapolated out at 1,328,122, of which 52.3% had a criminal history. This represents a 112% increase in total ICE detainees during the Trump administration’s first full year compared to the 4-year average under the Biden administration.
Deportations/Removals
The total number of illegal aliens removed from the U.S. under the Biden administration was 2,026,520, or a four-year average of 506,630/fiscal year. The first full calendar year of removals by the Trump administrations are extrapolated out at 660,480 deported and 2,074,235 self-deported for a total of 2,734,715. (Those who were here illegally but who self-deported maintain the possibility of being admitted back into the country legally in the future. Those who are deported forfeit that opportunity). This represents a 440% increase of illegal aliens removed from the country under the Trump administration compared to the 4-year average under the Biden administration.
Takeaway
There has been an unapologetic shift in immigration enforcement policy under the Trump administration as compared to the 4-year average under the Biden administration. No other country in the world self-created the burden and national security threat that the U.S. did by allowing the number of illegal aliens within our borders to swell above 15 million people.
At worst the situation was the result of an intentional act to import future Democrat voters, and at “least worst” it was the result of a condition identified by scholar Gaad Saad as suicidal empathy. Saad has described suicidal empathy as “excessive compassion that undermines societal cohesion, values, and security. Whether it was the worst or the “least worst,” our illegal immigration problem represents a threat to our national security and wellbeing. History will undoubtedly judge the Trump administration’s efforts to address it with more discernment than it is presently afforded.
