Boston Policy Institute, now Pioneer City Initiative, was the first organization to quantify exactly how large Boston’s shortfall in commercial property tax revenue could be due to falling office values. Partnering with the Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University, Boston Policy Institute has published two different reports in February 2024 and June 2025.
The February 2024 forecast that Boston faced the loss of more than $1 billion in tax revenue over the next five years, and the June 2025 report forecast a worst case scenario where Boston could lose more than $2 billion in tax revenue. With no clear prospect for recovery, such shortfalls could persist for decades, triggering a long-term decline in public services and economic vitality.
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