Since it launched, as and when the data have become available, I have been tracking the performance of Minnesota’s Paid Family and Medical Leave (PFML) scheme against the forecasts on which it is based. Back in 2023, a daily rate of approvals of 352 (128,338 / 365) was forecast.
The last update came from the Star Tribune, which reported on April 20 that “The state approved 42,750 requests and denied 19,250 as of March 31.” That works out at a daily approval rate of 475 (42,750 / 90), or 35% above forecast.
A fresh update from an unexpected source shows that this number is still way above forecast.
In his final his final State of the State speech delivered on Tuesday night, Gov. Walz said:
Since Paid Leave officially launched on January 1, we’ve approved more than 54,000 applications for people to take time—to bond with a new child, to take care of a family member, to serve their community.
That works out at a daily approval rate of 458 (54,000 / 118), or 30% above forecast, as Figure 1 shows.
Figure 1: Average daily approval rate for Paid Family and Medical Leave
This is a step in the right direction, to be sure, but with actual use of the scheme outstripping forecasts by nearly a third, working Minnesotans might still be in line for a tax hike this summer.
