Back in June, Minnesota Management & Budget (MMB) released its end of session “General Fund Balance Analysis” with forecasts for the current budget biennium (FY 2026-27) and the next (FY 2028-29). These are the last estimates we will get before the elections in November.
It shows that Minnesota’s state government is forecast to spend (“Total Expenditures & Transfers”) more than it collects in revenue (“Subtotal Current Resources”) in every single year from 2026 to 2029 for a cumulative deficit of $5.5 billion.
Figure 1: Minnesota state government spending and revenues, billions
This is nothing new, Minnesota’s state government has been running a deficit since 2024 after the “historic” 2023 trifecta blew the state’s budget up, but we ought to be hearing more from the candidates on the campaign trail about they intend to close this gap, as they must. The question is especially pertinent given the DFL’s proposals to add more than $5 billion annually in fresh spending on top of this.
Will we see higher taxes? Will we see spending cuts? Will we see some combination of the two? These are questions Minnesota’s dogged newshounds with their inexhaustible reservoirs of curiosity will, no doubt, be pestering the candidates with this vote harvesting season.
